Monday, March 25, 2013

Splitting pairs

One of the questions I am asked the most is when to split pairs to go for a flush or straight when setting your hand.  Although this answer gets complicated when you have three to the flush or a gut shot straight draw, it is very easy with four to the flush or open ended straight draw.

If you are open ended (8 outs to hit) or four to the flush (9 outs. Pic below), you must split your pair and go for the straight or flush.  You have a potential royalty and a high percentage chance to hit your hand.


Where this decision gets complicated is when you have three cards to a flush.  Assuming you don't know your opponents' cards, you have to assume you have eight chances to pull two of the remaining ten cards left of your suit.  If the pair is small, you are better off going for the flush, knowing you can also pair up altered if the suit doesn't come.  If the pair is bigger, you need to decide how risky you are willing to play.  If the pair is AA, KK, QQ, or JJ, I am almost always going to play the pair in the back. The starting strength of a big pair in back can make your opponents miss play their hands, especially if you are able to pair up your middle hand , and/or improve your back hand early.

The biggest question is what to do with those middle pairs.  77, 88, 99, TT are hard to commit to in the back when you have a potential flush draw for several reasons.
1) middle pairs usually won't beat anyone in the back if you do not improve
2) it is harder to pair up your hand in the middle because you are limited to lower pairs unless you improve early
3) other players will not have to adjust the play of their hand much unless you improve your back hand early

So when dealing with a three card flush vs middle pair option, I would play the flush unless you have JJ or better.

Pairs vs open ended three card straights are another story.  Always play the pair in this scenario.  The royalty bonus for straights is only 2 pts, and the risk of miss setting is much higher.  You have a much better chance in the hand if you ignore the three card straight draw when you already have a pair, no matter how big.  You may, however, choose to play the pair in the middle if you have a low pair and two or three over cards to start.  For example, you have 6,6,7,8,Q.  You could put 6,6,7 in the middle and 8,Q in the back and any other big cards to try and pair over the 66 later in the hand.

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