Splitting pairs

One of the questions I am asked the most is when to split pairs to go for a flush or straight when setting your hand.  Although this answer gets complicated when you have three to the flush or a gut shot straight draw, it is very easy with four to the flush or open ended straight draw.

If you are open ended (8 outs to hit) or four to the flush (9 outs. Pic below), you must split your pair and go for the straight or flush.  You have a potential royalty and a high percentage chance to hit your hand.

Where this decision gets complicated is when you have three cards to a flush.  Assuming you don't know your opponents' cards, you have to assume you have eight chances to pull two of the remaining ten cards left of your suit.  If the pair is small, you are better off going for the flush, knowing you can also pair up altered if the suit doesn't come.  If the pair is bigger, you need to decide how risky you are willing to play.  If the pair is AA, KK, QQ, or JJ, I am almost always going to play the pair in the back. The starting strength of a big pair in back can make your opponents miss play their hands, especially if you are able to pair up your middle hand , and/or improve your back hand early.

The biggest question is what to do with those middle pairs.  77, 88, 99, TT are hard to commit to in the back when you have a potential flush draw for several reasons.
1) middle pairs usually won't beat anyone in the back if you do not improve
2) it is harder to pair up your hand in the middle because you are limited to lower pairs unless you improve early
3) other players will not have to adjust the play of their hand much unless you improve your back hand early

So when dealing with a three card flush vs middle pair option, I would play the flush unless you have JJ or better.

Pairs vs open ended three card straights are another story.  Always play the pair in this scenario.  The royalty bonus for straights is only 2 pts, and the risk of miss setting is much higher.  You have a much better chance in the hand if you ignore the three card straight draw when you already have a pair, no matter how big.  You may, however, choose to play the pair in the middle if you have a low pair and two or three over cards to start.  For example, you have 6,6,7,8,Q.  You could put 6,6,7 in the middle and 8,Q in the back and any other big cards to try and pair over the 66 later in the hand.

When to abandon a draw

One of the biggest decisions in this game is when to abandon a draw to a royalty hand in the back and concentrate on no miss setting your hand.  There are so many things that can factor into this decision, so it is difficult to pinpoint when to make that decision, if at all. You need to consider the following:

1) the number of outs you have to make the royalty
2) the number of outs you have to make a hand in the back that may not make a royalty, but will still not foul your hand
3) the number of opponents
4) the strength of your opponent(s) hand
5) the potential points win or loss (risk vs reward)

With all of these factors to consider, this decision is a very complicated one.  Lets analyze the following hand according to each of these factors.

Assume you are Tom.

1) there are already 9 spades out, so there are 4 spades left in the deck to hit a flush
2) if you pass on this K, there are no more left in the deck. There is also only 1 more 7 in the deck, so you cannot make trip 7s. Your only non spade outs are the 3 remaining Qs
3) this is a four handed game so any risk/reward decision you make will be magnified compared to a three or two handed game.
4) Mike has a strong middle hand and is going for a royalty on top, however, he is currently in danger of miss setting his hand.  He will need to hit the last 7, one of two 5s, or two of another card.  In making this decision, you should consider it likely that mike will miss set.
John is in bad shape against your hand right now.  He needs two of the last seven diamonds, the last 10, or one of the three remaining As in order not to miss set his hand.
Mark doesn't have much of a hand right now. You are ahead against him in all but the top hand, and you have a great chance of beating him with four cards to come.
5) risk vs reward:  by giving up the flush, you won't get any royalty points, but you are likely to scoop at least two players and a good chance at all three.  That is a total of 18 points by not playing the flush.  If you risk the flush and hit, you are likely to get another 12 points, but have a chance of miss setting and losing. Assuming one player miss sets his hand, you would lose 12 points.  So the risk is -12 vs 12 more than you would get if you abandon the flush.  The ultimate result is being +18 vs -12.  In this case, it doesn't make sense to take the risk.

Play the K in the back and make your pair.

Here is how the hand played out.

John got lucky and hit his flush. Your flush would have come in and you would have won a big hand.  However, long term the better play is to abandon the flush there.

Welcome your comments.